Wednesday, January 10, 2024, the Faculty of Public Health (FPH) Universitas Indonesia (UI) held an open session for the Promotion of Doctor of Public Health Sciences (IKM) with promovendus Ade Heryana with a defended dissertation entitled “Development of a Regional Risk-Based Disease Outbreak Control Model: Pandemic Case Study COVID-19 in Java-Bali”.
Policies to control the COVID-19 pandemic in Indonesia have not considered risks originating from regional geographical, demographic, social and economic characteristics. The initial control of the COVID-19 pandemic in Indonesia, which still used a historical and repetitive approach, resulted in high dynamics, especially in areas directly affected by the outbreak. The emergence of a wave of the Delta variant in 2021 has an impact that does not consider the risks of control at the start of the pandemic. In fact, controlling disease outbreaks in an area is closely related to the characteristics of the epidemic area.
Based on this background, promovendus then conducted research aimed at developing a model for controlling infectious disease outbreaks based on regional risk at the district/city level in Indonesia. The research was carried out in 2 (two) stages. The first stage was a study of risk factors for the Delta wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in 128 districts/cities of Java/Bali using an observational study type and a retrospective study design in July 2021 – December 2022. The second stage was a modeling study of disease outbreak control and efforts to control disease outbreaks or SEIRD. (Susceptible, Exposed, Infected, Recovered, and Death) with operational research study type and prospective study design in January – June 2023.
The results of the model simulation show that social determinant factors have a significant risk in controlling the severity of the pandemic based on vulnerability, capacity, exposure, and hazard. Demographic, social, and immune factors such as population size, population age, number of households, vaccination coverage and population immunity status are characteristics that are consistently the highest in each Delta wave.
The results of risk mapping also show that the Jabodetabek area and parts of West Java are areas with a high risk of outbreaks. The main types of epidemic control efforts recommended are limiting socio-economic activities of the population, increasing community immunity or herd case immunity, implementing genomic surveillance (the process of continuously monitoring pathogens and analyzing their genetic similarities and differences), comprehensively strengthening population immunity, PHBS education ( Clean and Healthy Living Behavior), strengthening and increasing compliance with health protocols, as well as strengthening and increasing testing, tracing, quarantine and isolation.
Social determinants of health are suggested by promovendus to be used as a basis for determining risk factors for disease outbreaks that describe the characteristics of districts/cities. These factors include economic, socio-community, demographic and geographic factors, education, quality of life, and health systems. A collaborative and layered policy framework between central and regional governments with a division of tasks in accordance with their authority also needs to be developed.
The research carried out by Ade has several points of novelty, namely adjusting the rates of susceptibility, exposure, transmission, recovery and death; the ability of the model to predict undetected or unreported cases for all compartments; controlling model outcomes based on pandemic phase; risk assessment process based on regional characteristics; and proposing pandemic control efforts based on risk analysis.
“Brother Ade Heryana has been instrumental in communicating cross-sectorally with ministries and institutions regarding the legal regulations he made in the form of circulars regulating traffic brake gas and people’s mobility during COVID-19. So, this was accepted and agreed upon by all parties, until finally BNPB invited him as chairman of the task force. “This doctoral degree is a gift that should be given to you,” said Prof. drh. Wiku B. Adisasmito, M.Sc., Ph.D. as promoter.
Based on the results of his dissertation, Ade Heryana, who was born on November 24 1973 in Jakarta, was declared to have passed and succeeded in obtaining a Doctorate degree in Public Health Sciences (IKM) as the 8th IKM doctoral graduate of 2024, the 304th IKM doctoral graduate, and the 8th graduate of Doctoral degree at the 390th FPH UI, and achieved a very satisfactory title with a GPA of 3.87.
This doctoral promotion session was chaired by Prof. Dr. Ascobat Gani, M.P.H., Ph.D., as Chair of the Session, Prof. drh. Wiku B. Adisasmito, M.Sc., Ph.D., as Promoter, and Prof. Dr. dra. Dumillah Ayuningtyas, M.A.R.S., as Co-Promoter. The examining team in the trial consisted of Prof. Dr. Meiwita Budiharsana, M.P.A., Ph.D.; Prof. dra. Fatma Lestari, M.Si., Ph.D.; Turro Seltris Wongkaren, S.E., M.A., Ph.D.; Dra. Med. CSP. Wekadigunawan, drh., M.Kes., Ph.D.; and Dr. Raditya Jati, S.Si., M.Sc. (ITM)